Agricultural defaults slow down, but are still worrying

Default rates among the rural population reached 8.2% in the last quarter of 2025, according to Serasa monitoring. In comparison with the same period in 2024, there was an increase of 1 percentage point. In the quarterly analysis, the indicator slowed down, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

The datatech index considers debts of individuals from the Brazilian rural population that are overdue for more than 180 days and have been contracted with companies in sectors related to agribusiness.

"Despite signs of stabilization in some segments, default rates in agribusiness continue to rise gradually, with producers still facing tight margins and pressured cash flow, in the face of high costs, volatile prices and more selective credit", says Marcelo Pimenta, head of agribusiness at Serasa Experian.

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Size of debtors

In the analysis by size, the data show that rural producers without rural registration information, that is, potential tenants or participants in family or economic groups, recorded the highest level of default (9.9%). Next come large owners (9.8%), followed by medium-sized ones (8.3%) and small ones (7.8%).

Among the creditors of these debts, 7.2% were with financial institutions. Debts directly related to agricultural creditors represented 0.3%, while in other sectors the rate was 0.2%.

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Despite this data, Serasa highlights that the higher values are due to the agro itself. The general average of defaults with financial institutions is R$115.5 thousand while in the agro sector it reached R$138.2 thousand. In other sectors related to agribusiness, such as transport, storage and insurance, the average value was R$32.6 thousand.

"The profile of rural credit, marked by higher tickets, longer terms and greater financial exposure, means that few defaulters concentrate significant amounts of debt, increasing the risk even in a relatively controlled rate scenario", explains the head of agribusiness at datatech.

Defaults increase in the countryside and interest rates increase | CNN AGRO NEWS

Regions with the highest default rates

Among the country's regions, the South was the one with the lowest default rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, at 5.7%. The Southeast comes next, with 7.0%. Next are the Central-West (9.6%), the Northeast (9.4%) and the North (12.5%).

In terms of state, Rio Grande do Sul performed best, with just a 5.3% default rate, followed by Paraná and Santa Catarina. On the other hand, Amapá recorded the highest percentage, with 19.9%.

"Rio Grande do Sul's performance draws attention, especially in light of recent climate losses. This result can be explained by factors such as the strong presence of cooperatives and integrated systems, in addition to the more significant use of agricultural insurance and credit lines for debt renegotiation", explains Marcelo Pimenta.

The analysis of the Agro Score, developed by Serasa Experian, points to a decline in the average score of rural producers, which went from 616 to 600 points between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the same period of 2025.

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Source: CNN