Inter's chief economist: GDP is expected to grow less this year

The Brazilian economy grew 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026, placing the country among the nations with the biggest increases in GDP in the period. In an interview with CNN Prime Time, Inter's chief economist, Rafaela Vitória, evaluated the data and contextualized Brazilian performance in comparison with other countries.

According to her, the first quarter result was driven by a combination of factors, but there are doubts about the sustainability of this growth rate.

The result was a positive surprise, exceeding analysts' expectations, especially in a scenario of high interest rates and no prospects for significant relief in the short term.

Continue lendo

31/05/2026

João Fonseca analyzes victory over Ruud: "I wasn't that crazy"

João Fonseca celebrated qualifying for the Roland Garros quarter-finals after his victory over Casper Ruud this Sunday...

31/05/2026

João Fonseca reveals feeling of victory in Slam under the presence of Guga

João Fonseca continues to write his name in the history of world tennis. The 19-year-old defeated Norwegian Casper Ruu...

31/05/2026

Rock In Rio announces new ticket option with area in front of the stage

Rock In Rio announced a change in ticket options for the next edition, which will take place between the first weekend...

Rafaela Vitória explained that income incentives - such as transfers, an increase in the minimum wage and a larger income tax discount - added to the still significant growth in credit in the first quarter, boosted family consumption.

However, the economist was direct in stating that this scenario is not sustainable. "That's not very sustainable throughout the year," he said. "We expect this stronger growth in the first quarter to lose momentum and we tend to see GDP growing less this year compared to the growth we saw last year."

The investment rate recorded was 16.5%, considered insufficient to ensure that the supply of products keeps up with the increase in demand. To achieve this, the indicator would need to exceed 20%, according to Lucinda Pinto, which would allow sustained growth without putting pressure on inflation.

Top Cifras

Toque agora.

1 Leve Desespero Capital Inicial

2 Ana Júlia Teodoro e Sampaio

3 Say Goodnight Beat Crusaders

4 Mi Cocodrilo Verde Caetano Veloso

Industry and interest: two sectors on different trajectories
When asked about the impact of high interest rates on industry, which grew 1% in the quarter, Rafaela Vitória made an important distinction. The extractive industry - export-oriented and linked to oil, gas and mining - tends to be less affected, as it depends less on domestic credit and benefits from strong global demand for commodities.

The manufacturing industry, which depends on credit for both the production and consumption of durable and semi-durable goods, should feel the effects of the monetary tightening.

"We are going to see a slowdown in credit from now on", said Rafaela Vitória. According to her, although there is still an expectation that the Selic will fall in the next Copom meetings, this reduction should be more moderate, keeping the interest rate at a restrictive level for longer and impacting the manufacturing industry.

Expansionary fiscal pressures pressure on inflation and worries the market
For Rafaela Vitória, the most worrying factor in the current scenario is the excess of fiscal stimuli. "What we see as most worrying today in the scenario is an excess of fiscal stimulus from the government," said the economist.

According to her, stimuli via subsidies, income transfers and credit have kept demand strong, which puts pressure on inflation - especially in services, considered more worrying than energy and food inflation.

In this context, Rafaela Vitória warned of the risk that the Central Bank would need to pause the interest rate cut cycle, if the stimulus continues to sustain demand at high levels.

"As Lucinda rightly commented, there is no point in stimulating consumption if the supply is not capable of meeting that consumption.

The result of this is more inflation and that is what the Central Bank is trying to attack today", concluded the economist.

Brazil stands out in the global GDP ranking
Among the countries that have already released their results for the first quarter, Brazil was behind only South Korea and China, surpassing nations such as Finland, Hungary, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Spain.

The performance draws even more attention because it was achieved in a context of double-digit interest rates - a unique feature of Brazil in relation to the other countries in the ranking.

Analyst Lucinda Pinto highlighted, on CNN Prime Time, that agribusiness once again played a prominent role in the economy, being one of the main drivers of growth.

In addition, family consumption grew 1% in the quarter, supported in part by the debt that had expanded and by measures such as income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000. Government consumption, in turn, registered an increase of 0.4% in the period.

The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.

Source: CNN