Trump lives at "crossroads" with Iran, says expert

President Donald Trump has stated that he will not be pressured into reaching a deal with Iran and has indicated that he does not mind ending the conflict before the midterm elections, scheduled for November, which will renew part of the American Congress.

The declaration reignited the debate about the real obstacles to an understanding between Washington and Tehran.

In an interview with CNN 360°, international law specialist Priscila Caneparo assessed that Trump is at a real crossroads. "In fact, now Trump finds himself at a crossroads, because he sees that he will not be able to achieve the terms that were his central objective", he pondered.

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According to her, Iran presented a set of proposals to end the conflict, structured around three main points: the relief of sanctions and the unlocking of Iranian assets estimated at around US$24 billion; control and surveillance of the Strait of Hormuz, with a portion granted to Oman; and the issue of Iran's nuclear program.

Issue over the nuclear program
The most sensitive point in the negotiations concerns the nuclear program. Caneparo explained that Iran defends its right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and agrees to block the program for a maximum of five years. The United States, in turn, demands the complete termination of the program, including for peaceful purposes.

"Iran is an integral part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which states that the right of a State to have nuclear capacity for energy purposes is a human right, it is the right to development", highlighted the expert.

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Caneparo also considered that Trump will not be able to achieve his original objective of promoting the deposition of the Iranian regime. "The regime is very widespread within the Iranian context, territorially and socially speaking," he said.

She highlighted that Iran is a nation with a solid political structure and well-rooted in its territory, which makes a regime change due to external pressure unfeasible.

Economic scenario and mid-term elections
The expert also pointed out that Trump's oscillating speech - which sometimes signals the proximity of an agreement, sometimes indicates the opposite - seems aimed at pleasing the American economic scenario.

"The weekend is approaching and he says that the agreement is almost finalized. But throughout the week he gives some points and some indications that in fact there is no agreement at all", observed Caneparo.

When asked whether the midterm elections could pressure Trump to close a deal even if unfavorable, Caneparo was cautious. She acknowledged that the proximity of the elections could lead Trump to seek an "honorable exit", but considered it unlikely that he would sign a treaty that would not surpass the agreement signed by Barack Obama in 2015 - and from which Trump himself withdrew in 2018.

"There is an ego factor for Donald Trump, that he wants to carve out his name in history based on an achievement on the North American foreign political scene that no one has ever achieved before," he said.

Abraham Accords and the recognition of Israel
Caneparo also commented on a recent post by Trump on his social network, in which he stated that the Persian Gulf countries would be "obliged" to join the Abraham Accords - which provide for the recognition of the State of Israel and the establishment of diplomatic relations with the country.

The expert was emphatic in refuting the statement: "The United States cannot order a State to join a treaty, that is impossible." She added that in the current context, especially after the events in the Gaza Strip, it would be even more difficult than reaching a deal with Iran to convince the Persian Gulf countries to adhere to these agreements.

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Source: CNN