What World Cup 'guru' predicts for Brazil - and which team will win

Brazilian team will be at the 2026 World Cup
Getty Images via BBC
When the octopus Paul (2008-2010) got all the results of the German team right at the 2010 FIFA Men's Football World Cup in South Africa, the world hailed him as a true oracle.
But German economist Joachim Klement surpassed Paul with a complex prediction model that maintains 100% accuracy his predictions of the world champion, since the World Cup held in Brazil, in 2014.
If Klement's statistical prophecy is confirmed for the fourth time, the Netherlands will lift the champion's trophy at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, in the United States, after beating Portugal in the final of the tournament, on July 19th.
In addition to the champions, the German economist's model maps all phases of the tournament and its 48 teams. For the first knockout stage after the group stage, for example, he predicts Scotland's defeat to the South Korean team.
In Klement's prediction, Brazil will qualify first in its group, surprisingly losing in the second phase, to Japan.
"Probably one of the biggest upsets in the history of the World Cup", predicts Joachim Klement.
According to the model, the Netherlands will face Spain in the semi-finals. And, in the other semi-final, England and Portugal will face each other - who will have eliminated Argentina in the quarter-finals.
The economist predicts that Portugal will once again beat the English, as happened in the quarter-finals of the 2006 World Cup, in Germany. The forecast just doesn't detail whether the decision will take place again on penalties.
Klement is a self-confessed "pessimist", who lived in the United Kingdom for 10 years. For him, the research was never intended to prevent anyone's sadness, nor to make money on bets.
In fact, he hoped to reveal the absurdity of trying to predict the results.
"It all started as an exercise to show the world the arrogance of economists, who think they can predict facts about which they have no clue," explains Klement.
"Now, this has become a demonstration of how, if you get lucky enough times, people will think you are a guru."
His first prediction came true. became reality in 2014, when his country, Germany, won the World Cup held in Brazil.
Klement imagined that, by redoing the simulation again in 2018, he could demonstrate that it was a coincidence. But he got his prediction right again with France in 2018 - and then with Argentina in 2022.
"Because I got it right three times in a row, people now think that this model is invincible and that, of course, I will certainly get it right again," he says.
It's true that there are known "systemic" factors that determine, in part, each country's success in the World Cup. They include national population, wealth, climate and FIFA world rankings.
But the popularity of Klement's quadrennial predictions grows with each hit. And he cautions his readers to take his results with caution, as these factors only tell part of the story.
"The other 50% is luck," he says. Klement.
Whenever the World Cup approaches, the forecasting model gives Klement a great diversion from his day job.
"Particularly in 2026, when we have so many crises and wars and things going on, it's something that makes me feel good," he says.

"And I hope readers also feel good and have a little distraction from everything bad that is happening in the world."
But every time the economist gets a prediction right, the weight of expectation grows.
Klement works as a strategist at the investment bank Panmure Liberum and receives queries from his colleagues.
They want to know, for example, how the anterior cruciate ligament injury suffered by Tottenham's Dutch midfielder Xavi Simons could influence his model.
So, despite his numerous warnings about the integrity of the forecast, Klement is preparing for the start of the tournament in June.
"I have several colleagues who bet on the Netherlands because I published that note", he says.
"And, if the Netherlands are eliminated from the World Cup, I think that, the next day, I will need to work at home."

Source: G1

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