Analysis: War in the Middle East makes the world rethink the future of energy

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East continues to generate waves of impact on the global economy, with consequences that go beyond the prices of oil and oil products.

Ciro Dias Reis, columnist for CNN Money, analyzed the multiple developments of the war and the impasse in peace negotiations, highlighting the difficulty of making predictions about the next steps in the conflict.

"It's a back and forth that we're seeing over the days and weeks, and it's difficult to make an exact prognosis," said Ciro Reis.

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According to him, the most important thing at this moment is to monitor and take stock of the accumulated costs, which range from human lives to the financial impacts on the price of oil and fertilizers.

Although a peace agreement seemed close at one point, negotiations apparently backed off.

From a medium and long-term perspective, the columnist pointed out that the conflict also highlights the debate over countries' energy options in the coming decades.

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On the one hand, Donald Trump has defended the expansion of the use of oil. On the other hand, China has invested heavily in electrical energy, batteries and alternative energies.

"As a backdrop to this war, what we can think about is the future of energy use by countries over the next few years, the next decades", said Reis, adding that, in this field, China is "evidently far ahead".

Economic impacts and growth reviews
Ciro Reis highlighted that, even if the Strait of Hormuz were reopened immediately, normalizing the situation would require a lot of time and effort.

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has already revised its growth forecast for the global economy from 3.3% to 3.1%, and, in the worst-case scenario, considers a global recession possible.

The World Bank also expressed concern about the fiscal consequences for countries, which are spending more to limit the effects of the crisis on their populations.

"There is a huge puzzle that will have to be redone even after the end of the armed conflict", highlighted the columnist.

In addition to the financial impacts, he drew attention to the operational and logistical consequences of the war.

Refineries, facilities, gas and oil pipelines in several countries in the Middle East - including nations that are not directly involved in the conflict - were hit, compromising the region's production capacity.

Bombed data centers and new vulnerabilities
Ciro Reis added that data centers in the UAE and Bahrain were also targets of bombings, which he said added a new layer of concern for the United States and other countries.

"With each chapter of this conflict, we discover new vulnerabilities", he said.

The resumption of operational normality, based on previous conflicts such as the invasion of Iraq, tends to be much slower than the most optimistic forecasts suggest.

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Source: CNN