Analysis: Israel's actions in Lebanon weaken the United States

Israel expanded, this Tuesday (26), its military actions in southern Lebanon, in a move that threatens to compromise ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran to end the conflict in the Middle East. The Israeli advance comes at an especially delicate moment, when both sides were showing signs of closeness to an understanding.

According to an analysis by Fernanda Magnotta for CNN 360º, Israel's new attacks force Iran to defend its regional allies and highlight the fragility of American influence over Israeli military decisions.

Ceasefire threatened by multiple fronts

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Correspondent Américo Martins, reporting from London, highlighted that the Iranian government accused the United States of violating the ceasefire in force between the two nations. Iran's Revolutionary Guard even threatened retaliatory attacks against American interests in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz region. The American military, in turn, stated that the attacks carried out were defensive in nature, intended to protect its troops from Iranian threats.

Américo Martins highlighted that all these factors - the American attacks, the Iranian reaction and the resumption of Israeli operations in Lebanon - put the negotiation process to end the war at risk. According to him, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had recently stated that concluding an agreement was "a matter of getting phrases and words right in a final document." With the developments of the last few hours, this process would have "turned many squares on the negotiating table".

Israel puts pressure on Iran and weakens the US
In Fernanda Magnotta's analysis, Tehran tends to interpret the Israeli offensive in Lebanon as part of a coordinated regional strategy to weaken the so-called "axis of resistance" - a group formed by Iran and a series of regional actors, including Hezbollah. "This puts Iran in a position of having to protect its allies and, therefore, harden certain positions," said the analyst.

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Magnotta also highlighted that the situation weakens the United States in two ways. On the one hand, it exposes the American difficulty in containing Israel, its main partner in the region. On the other hand, it internally strengthens the wing most critical of Trump, which claims that the United States is functioning as "a kind of auxiliary axis for Israel, rather than acting in its own name." "The United States' own negotiating capacity is being called into question," he also said.

Iran's nuclear program returns to the center of impasse
When asked whether Iran could harden its position in relation to enriched uranium in the face of new American attacks, Magnotta assessed that this is "quite possible, especially in the short term". According to her, the historical pattern indicates that, faced with attacks of this type, the toughest sectors of the Iranian regime tend to gain traction, expanding nuclear capacity as an instrument of pressure.

"Enrichment, which has always been a delicate point in conversations [...] tends to become a bargaining asset once again." Magnotta recalled that the topic had already been taboo since the negotiations of the 2015 agreement. As the situation worsens, Iran may also tighten its position in relation to international verification and inspection mechanisms. "The story of sovereign right resurfaces," she said, indicating that Iran must reiterate its right to develop nuclear technology, which the Americans clearly reject - making any negotiations even more difficult.

Despite the unfavorable scenario, Magnotta considered that an agreement is not impossible. "But it will certainly fall short of what is desirable and most likely short of what the Americans themselves would eventually like to see happen", concluded the analyst, adding that "we are now in a very unfavorable condition, more so than just a few days ago".

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Source: CNN