Effect of war on assets: market has correction movement, says analyst

The war in the Middle East continues to move world markets and impact the behavior of financial assets. João Daronco, analyst at Suno Research, assessed the current scenario and the prospects for investors in the face of negotiations around a possible truce.

For Daronco, the movement observed in the markets at this moment is predominantly one of correction. According to him, the announcements related to the conflict "have not had repercussions or have had no major effects on the asset market."

The analyst attributed this behavior to the loss of credibility of statements about peace negotiations, following successive contradictions between the parties involved. "We've had several backtrackings, several misunderstandings in which Trump said something and Iran said the complete opposite," he said.

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Oil price after a possible ceasefire
Regarding the impact of a possible end to the conflict on the price of a barrel of oil, Daronco was cautious. He believes that, if there is a ceasefire, the price will tend to retreat, but will be unlikely to return to pre-war levels, between US$60 and US$65 per barrel.

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"The world is much more stressed and much more fearful of conflict", he explained, projecting a new level of between US$75 and US$80 per barrel. The analyst also highlighted that more expensive oil generates chain inflation, affecting transport, food, industrial and consumer goods.

Daronco also explained why oil has not returned to the peaks of US$115 to US$120 recorded at the beginning of the conflict. According to him, the market experienced a very intense initial fear, which generated a rush for commodities and raised prices abruptly. Over time, the market "digested the information and better understood what was really happening", leading to a gradual normalization of prices.

Venezuela, Russia and the global supply scenario
When asked about Venezuela's role as a potential oil producer, the analyst was skeptical about a relevant contribution in the short term. "Venezuela's infrastructure is quite scrapped," he said, adding that significant investments and a lot of time would be needed to significantly increase production. For him, this should not happen in the immediate horizon.

In relation to Russia, Daronco pointed out that a possible ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could be more decisive for the global oil market. "If we had Russian supply entering the global oil market, we could see this Brent price drop to levels closer to 60", he said. However, he acknowledged that, in the short term, it is difficult to have visibility on when Brent could reach US$50 a barrel, the level desired by Donald Trump before the conflict began.

Regarding the general perspectives, Daronco assessed that there is a common interest among countries in ending the conflict, given the global inflationary impact. He highlighted that Iran occupies a more comfortable position in negotiations, which makes it "a little tougher" in negotiations. Even so, the analyst believes that the trend points to an outcome of the conflict, which could contribute to reducing inflationary fears, lowering interest rates and improving global growth. "With each passing week, this date is much closer than the previous week", he concluded.

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Source: CNN