Disruption falls in retail, but the field keeps milk among the most affected products

Neogrid's Rupture Index, an indicator that measures the lack of products on Brazilian supermarket shelves, fell 0.2 percentage points in April, to 11.5%, indicating an improvement in supply in several essential categories. Even so, products directly linked to agribusiness remain under pressure from climate factors, production costs and logistical challenges that impact the entire supply chain.

The main highlight was UHT milk, which recorded the highest increase in stockouts among all monitored categories, rising from 19.1% to 20.7% in April.

The movement reflects a scenario already perceived in the dairy agribusiness: lower supply of raw milk, climate seasonality, increase in the cost of animal feed and pressure on transport and distribution.

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This context also boosted consumer prices, with adjustments in all versions of the product. The full price went from R$5.45 to R$6.08 per liter on average; semi-skimmed, from R$5.46 to R$6.16; skimmed, from R$5.36 to R$6.06; and lactose-free, from R$6.83 to R$7.47.

"Disruption is a lose-lose situation. If the consumer enters the store with a more controlled budget and does not find the product they are looking for, they can transfer this purchase to another retailer. Therefore, the sector has been investing in smarter supply with fine adjustments of stock and increasingly data-driven decisions", explains Robson Munhoz, Chief Relationship Strategist at Neogrid.

According to IBGE, long-life milk was one of the main factors responsible for the acceleration of the IPCA-15 in April, registering an increase of 16.33% in the period. According to the institute, the Food and Beverages group advanced 1.46% with an impact of 0.31 p.p. on the general index, reinforcing the weight of the category in family budgets and in the retail supply strategy.

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Beans and rice

Other important agricultural categories showed an improvement in supply. Beans recorded their first drop since the beginning of Neogrid's new historical series, going from 10.8% to 9.4%.

Rice also fell from 11.7% to 11.1%, while coffee fell from 7.5% to 6.8%. The results suggest a gradual recomposition of supply, favored by the advance of harvests, greater logistical predictability and adjustments in distribution strategies.

Rising prices

Even so, prices remain under pressure for most food commodities. Beans increased in all monitored versions, while rice and sugar also showed adjustments in part of the analyzed items.

Red beans went from R$12.20 to R$12.40 on average; the carioca, from R$7.96 to R$8.37; and black, from R$6.39 to R$6.62.

Coffee powder went from R$74.82 to R$73.60 per kilo, while coffee beans fell from R$136.19 to R$133.97.

White rice rose from R$4.76 to R$4.82 per kilo on average, and parboiled rice rose from R$4.51 to R$4.60. The full version was the only version with a drop, going from R$7.19 to R$7.15.

In the case of eggs, even with a drop of 1.5 pp in April, they continue to have the highest rupture rate among the monitored categories. Unavailability fell from 27% in March to 25.5% in April, remaining, however, at a historically high level.

The behavior reinforces how basic consumer proteins remain sensitive to increases in production costs and supply dynamics.

In prices, there was a mixed behavior. The package with 12 units fell from R$12.07 to R$11.98, while the box with 20 units went from R$17.34 to R$16.90. The 30 units fluctuated from R$21.53 to R$21.51. A pack of half a dozen rose from R$7.42 to R$7.51 on average in the country.

Source: CNN