Brazil has the lowest homicide rate in the historical series, but there is a "blind spot"

Brazil recorded 42,590 homicides in 2024, the lowest rate in the historical series recorded since 2014, according to data from the "Atlas of Violence 2026", released by Ipea (Institute of Applied Economic Research) in partnership with the FBSP (Brazilian Public Security Forum) this Tuesday morning (26).

The number, based on official indicators from the Mortality Information System, of the Ministry of Health, points to a rate of 20.1 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, which means a drop of 7.4% compared to the year 2023.

However, the research points out that, although official data demonstrate a drop in lethal violence, there is a "critical increase in the underreporting of homicides." The survey states that this fact may have created a "statistical blind spot".

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Hidden homicides
In Brazil, there are two main sectors of official records that allow the measurement of intentional lethal violence: the Mortality Information System, of the Ministry of Health (MS), and the police records base, which focuses on criminal types, including homicide.

According to the study, even with official numbers, in many cases the State is not able to identify the cause of death. Therefore, the cases are classified as MVCI (Violent Deaths due to Undetermined Cause) and do not fall into the general number considered - 42,590 homicides in 2024.

To get around the problem, the researchers created a method to confirm whether or not each MVCI was a homicide. As a result, the estimate of homicides occurring in Brazil, in addition to considering those officially registered in each State, added the number of MVCIs that were reclassified as having been homicides, which was called "hidden homicides".

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If these numbers are considered, Brazil would have recorded an estimated 49,673 homicides in 2024, which would imply a variation of just -0.3% compared to the previous year.

The researchers also point out that, between 2023 and 2024, hidden homicides increased by 88.6%, from 3,755 to 7,083, and the rate went from 1.8 to 3.3 per 100 thousand inhabitants. As a result, they corresponded to 14.3% of homicides estimated in 2024, compared to 7.6% in 2023.

In addition, during the period between 2014 and 2024, the country accumulated approximately 55,212 hidden homicides, with an average of 5,019 cases per year. Therefore, experts emphasize that improvement data still needs to be analyzed with caution.

94% of Brazilians consider their cities violent, says survey

Most violent cities
In relation to Brazilian states, the lowest official homicide rates were recorded in São Paulo, Santa Catarina and the Federal District. Already the highest rates

occurred in Amapá, Bahia, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Ceará.

Half of Brazilians don't feel safe where they live

Another fact highlighted by the research is that, among the municipalities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants, 17 of the 20 most violent are located in the Northeast, while the 20 least violent cities are concentrated exclusively in the South and Southeast regions.

See list of the 10 most violent:

- Maranguape (CE) - estimated homicide rate of 87.2 per 100 thousand inhabitants Caucaia (CE) - estimated homicide rate of 72.9 per 100 thousand inhabitants
- Juazeiro (BA) - estimated homicide rate of 71.1 per 100 thousand inhabitants
- Feira de Santana (BA) - estimated homicide rate of 67 per 100 thousand inhabitants estimated homicide rate of 64 per 100 thousand inhabitants
- Camaçari (BA) - estimated homicide rate of 62.9 per 100 thousand inhabitants

Source: CNN