Analysis: US attacks on Iran expose fragility in negotiations

The United States has carried out new attacks on Iranian facilities, including missile launchers and vessels, claiming self-defense, while negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain without a clear outcome. The conflict, which has lasted more than 80 days, involves disputes over Iran's nuclear program, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the complex web of regional relations.

The American military action occurred at the same time that a high-level Iranian delegation disembarked in Doha, Qatar, for negotiations mediated by the Qataris. According to information from international agencies, some of the vessels attacked were installing naval mines in the region.

Negotiations stalled at crucial points
According to the report by CNN International's White House correspondent, Kevin Liptak, the two parties continue to be stuck on issues surrounding the wording of the final agreement. The presence of the Iranian delegation in Qatar raised hopes that the mediators could unblock the impasse, but the expectation, at least on the American side, is that the negotiations could still last for a few more days.

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One of the main points of disagreement involves Iran's nuclear program. While the Americans claim that Iran has agreed, in principle, to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the Iranians maintain that this issue has not yet been discussed in detail.

Additionally, Iran wants more specifics on what sanctions the United States is willing to lift and what assets would be unfrozen. The American response, summed up in the phrase "no dust, no dollars", is that any financial relief will only come after concrete progress on nuclear issues.

The legal framework behind the attacks
Professor at UFF (Universidade Federal Fluminense) and Harvard researcher Vitelio Brustolin explained the legal context that underpins American military actions. According to him, the war began on February 28, with a ceasefire between the US and Iran established on April 8. Israel and Hezbollah, however, continued fighting, and a ceasefire on that front only came on April 17 - yet hostilities persisted.

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Brustolin detailed that, when beginning military operations, the United States invoked Article 2 of the American Constitution, which gives the president the powers of commander in chief. Under the "War Powers Resolution", passed after the Vietnam War to limit these powers, the president can act militarily in emergencies, but must notify Congress within 48 hours and complete the operation within 60 days.

"Every time these attacks occur, the United States maintains that the ceasefire has not been interrupted," explained Brustolin, adding that each new action is framed as a defensive operation to stay within legal limits.

War objectives not met
CNN International analyst Lourival Sant'Anna pointed out that none of the main objectives declared for the conflict were achieved. The dismantlement of Iran's conventional missile arsenal has not taken place, and the destroyed stockpile is being replenished. The end of relations between Iran and its allied groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, has also not materialized.

Regime change, another objective mentioned, is not even on the agenda. "Iran continues to project power, both with geography controlling the Strait of Hormuz and with half of its missile stock in shape," Brustolin said.

For Sant'Anna, Iran seeks to demonstrate that the war has made the world a worse place than it was before, and therefore does not facilitate attempts at agreement.

"Over the weekend, President Donald Trump said that a deal was imminent; Iran said no," noted Sant'Anna, highlighting that Iranians systematically deny American statements to make Trump's position more difficult.

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world's oil passes, continues to penalize the global economy, with potential electoral consequences in the United States in November.

Israel and regional complexity
Brustolin also highlighted that the Israelis appear to be making negotiations difficult by intensifying bombings in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to comply with the terms of the first ceasefire, and Hezbollah, in turn, also provokes and attacks Israel, demonstrating an interest in tension.

The issue of the Abraham Accords - which presuppose normalization of relations between countries in the region and Israel - was highlighted as another point of tension. Countries like Pakistan have explicitly refused to join the agreements, while others have not responded at all. "Trump is unable to impose this on Muslim countries after the destruction of the Gaza Strip," said Sant'Anna.

The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.

Source: CNN