Fertilizer sales in Brazil have a significant delay

The delay in purchasing fertilizers for the next harvest is beginning to worry the Brazilian agricultural sector. In an interview with CNN, Felipe Pecci, commercial vice president at Mosaic, stated that the pace of sales is between 10 and 15 percentage points below the historical average, pressured by geopolitical volatility, rising costs and credit restrictions.

Currently, around 65% of the market has been traded, while 35% still needs to be closed - a delay considered relevant for a country that imports more than 80% of the fertilizers it consumes.

"We have already started to observe logistical stress. There is sea time, port line-up, and a large part of these operations ends up being concentrated in the second and third quarter. It is a worrying delay", stated Pecci.

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According to the executive, the international scenario has been changing the behavior of rural producers, who have started to postpone purchasing decisions in the face of price instability and uncertainty about global supply.

Geopolitics puts pressure on the global chain
In recent years, conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East have directly impacted the international fertilizer market. Regions represent between 30% and 40% of NPK

(nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) traded globally.

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For Brazil, highly dependent on imports, the effect is immediate: increased costs, logistical difficulties and pressure on rural producer margins.

"In five or six years, geopolitical tensions have escalated. It started with Russia and Ukraine and now in the Middle East," said Pecci.

The executive highlights that the delay in purchases creates a chain effect on ports, transport and storage, especially in the Center-West, the country's main producing region.

Producers seek efficiency and reduce applications
Faced with rising costs, producers have intensified more detailed soil analyzes to understand exactly which nutrients they need to apply and where they can reduce expenses.

The movement has mainly driven interest in phosphorus (P2O5) and in biological solutions complementary to traditional fertilizers.

"Producers are seeking deeper soil analyzes to know exactly what they need to apply and how much they can save", he explained.

According to Pecci, this movement does not reduce Brazil's dependence on imports, but can increase the competitiveness of agriculture by increasing the efficiency of the use of inputs.

"To keep up with this moment, we started investing in precision agriculture, digital platforms and biological solutions capable of increasing the efficiency of nutrient use in the field", he stated.

Among Mosaic's recent moves is the launch of the BioBlend line, which combines fertilizers with biological additives aimed at activating the soil's microbiota. The company also intensified supply chain monitoring and pre-positioning of stocks, seeking to reduce supply risks in the face of global geopolitical and logistical uncertainties.

Explosion in the price of sulfur worsens the scenario
Another factor of concern for the sector is the spike in the price of sulfur, a fundamental raw material for the production of phosphate fertilizers.

The product, which historically cost around a third of the value of MAP (monoammonium phosphate), exceeded the price of the fertilizer itself.

"Sulfur went from around US$150 per ton at the end of last year to more than US$1,000 per ton," he said.

In addition to geopolitical conflicts and logistical difficulties in the Middle East, the input also began to be competed for by the energy transition industry, used in the production of nickel, batteries and electric cars.

The MAP has increased from approximately US$ 650 to around US$ 900 per ton.

More expensive credit limits purchases
Restricted access to rural credit has also contributed to the delay in negotiations.

According to Mosaic, high interest rates and fluctuations in commodity prices have been reducing the purchasing power of some producers.

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"There are pockets of demand that will not be able to purchase products. The market is already seeing an increase in the number of judicial recoveries", said Pecci.

To face the scenario, Mosaic states that it intends to expand partnerships with financial institutions and invest in precision agriculture and biological solutions, seeking to reduce dependence on the most volatile cycles in the global market.

Why does Brazil need to import fertilizers?

Source: CNN