Lula is at the approval limit, says political marketing expert

The Lula government faces a delicate scenario in relation to its popular approval, which fluctuates around the threshold considered critical for re-election. According to Lula Guimarães, a political marketing specialist at CNN 360°, there is a classic calculation among political scientists that points out that governments with approval ratings below 30% have great difficulty in being re-elected.

"The Lula government is at that limit. It had a little more than 30%, it even had less than 30%", stated Lula Guimarães in an interview with CNN.

The role of the government machine
Despite the challenging scenario in the polls, Lula Guimarães highlighted that the power of the State and the government machine in elections should not be ignored.

Continue lendo

28/05/2026

Lotomania today: results of contest 2929 and numbers drawn

Lotomania Resultg1See below the draw numbers for Lotomania contest 2929 held this Wednesday (27):14 - 15 - 16 - 19 - 2...

28/05/2026

Dupla Sena today: results of contest 2962 and numbers drawn

Dupla Sena resultg1See below the draw numbers for Dupla Sena contest 2962 held this Wednesday (27):1st draw: 17 - 24 -...

28/05/2026

Super Sete today: results of contest 852 and numbers drawn

Super Sete steering wheelsG1See below the numbers drawn from the columns in contest 852 of Super Sete held this Wednes...

The expert recalled that, in the 2022 elections, Jair Bolsonaro made extensive use of this resource, with a series of benefits, and that the defeat by a narrow margin was more related to mismanagement during the pandemic than to the use of the machine.

"Perhaps if he had, for example, just vaccinated himself, or vaccinated his family, perhaps he would have won the election easily", he assessed.

In the current scenario, the expert highlighted that Lula has a wide political reach, including governors, mayors, councilors and federal and state deputies.

Top Cifras

Toque agora.

1 02 Lágrimas Genival Dos Teclados

2 I Love You Billie Eilish

3 It's no good Depeche Mode

4 Lugar mais alto Intimidade e Adoração

According to him, this structure has the capacity to influence especially low-income and low-education voters, who would be "more vulnerable" and would be "more within the reach of State power".

Right-wing strategy and the second round
Lula Guimarães also analyzed the dynamics between right-wing candidates, such as Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Romeu Zema (Novo), and the question of whether or not to anticipate electoral alliances.

For the expert, making a hasty alliance before the first round could be harmful for candidates looking to occupy a third way space, as they tend to empty out quickly.

"For him [the candidate], it is important to maintain this competitiveness until the last day of the campaign in the first round", he explained.

As for the second round, the expert assessed that it is, in general, an election marked more by rejections than by preferences.

In this context, candidates who competed in the first round tend to naturally coalesce around rejecting their opponent.

Lula Guimarães also pointed out a specific disadvantage for the current government: unlike the 2022 elections, there are no other candidates on the left who can gain votes in a possible second round.

The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.

Source: CNN