Nexus CEO: Vorcaro had little effect on Flávio Bolsonaro; Lula has a slight advantage

The disclosure of conversations between senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and the former owner of the Master bank, Daniel Vorcaro, had a limited impact on the candidate's voting intentions, according to analysis of the Nexus/BTG survey commented by Marcelo Tokarski, CEO of Nexus, on Backstage CNN.

Still, according to the survey, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) now has a slight advantage in the simulated second round scenario, a situation that did not exist four weeks earlier.

According to Tokarski, 86% of voters interviewed by Nexus were already aware of the audio sent by Flávio to Vorcaro or of the candidate's visit to the former banker during his house arrest.

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"This information is priced into the voter's mind", said the expert.

Small impact in the first round, bigger difference in the second
In the spontaneous first round scenario, Flávio has maintained 26% of voting intentions for two consecutive months.

In the first round simulation, he dropped just one percentage point. "It wasn't the bang that some people imagined", highlighted Tokarski.

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In the simulated second round, Flávio fell from 45% to 43%, while Lula rose from 46% to 47%, opening a difference of four percentage points.

According to Tokarski, this difference puts Lula in a position of "discreet favoritism" if the election were to take place today.

The expert highlighted, however, that the second round is scheduled for October 25th, still five months away, which leaves room for changes in the scenario.

Rejection: Lula falls, Flávio rises
One of the factors that explain Lula's advantage in the second round simulation is the evolution of rejection rates. Lula gradually reduced his rejection, which was 49% two months ago, fell to 48% and is now at 47%.

Flávio, who maintained rejection equal to or lower than Lula's, at around 48%, saw this rate increase to 50%.

"These three percentage points of Flávio's greater rejection are precisely what is making the difference today in the second round simulation", explained Tokarski.

The expert considered that, in polarized elections like the one in 2022, a rejection below 50% still allows the candidate to have a real chance of winning.

"In the past, 20 years ago, if a candidate had more than a 40% rejection rate, any political marketer would tell the candidate to give up. Today, Lula has 47%, Flávio has 50% and both have a real chance of winning the election", he assessed.

Flávio's trip to the United States and the weight of Trump
When asked about Flávio Bolsonaro's trip to the United States and the possibility of a meeting with American President Donald Trump, Tokarski drew a parallel with the strategy adopted by Lula's camp weeks earlier, when the government rescheduled an international visit after suffering defeats in the Senate.

"Flávio Bolsonaro is trying to use a similar trick, generate a positive agenda for him and try to take away some of the focus he has had in the last two weeks with the revelation of the audios", he said.

The expert warned, however, that the result of the strategy depends on the tone adopted.

If the visit is presented as foreign interference in Brazilian elections or as questioning of electronic voting machines, the effect could be negative.

"Brazilian voters do not accept very well" this type of approach, said Tokarski, recalling that Lula's reaction to Trump's tariff in 2025 improved the government's evaluation among public opinion.

Joaquim Barbosa and the third way
The Nexus/BTG survey was the first to include the former minister of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) Joaquim Barbosa (Christian Democracy) in the electoral scenario.

The result, however, did not indicate a gain in relation to the previous name tested by the party, the former minister and former president of the Chamber of Deputies Aldo Rebelo: both appear with 2% of voting intentions.

Tokarski attributed the modest performance to Barbosa's long period of public absence.

"We have voters aged up to 36 who probably know little about who Joaquim Barbosa is", he pondered, adding that the candidate is in a party considered small, with little funding and little media space.

The candidate with the best performance among the names of the so-called third way is Ronaldo Caiado, who went from 3% to 5% in voting intentions - variation within the margin of error.

Tokarski highlighted that around 20% of the electorate votes for Lula or Flávio mainly to defeat the opponent, which indicates potential space for a third name.

However, no candidate outside the main duel managed to reach double digits, a level considered necessary to be seen as a real option by voters.

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Source: CNN