Analysis: What will happen when the war in the Middle East ends?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated on Saturday (23) that peace with Iran is close and that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.

Iran has, in turn, adopted an inflexible stance regarding the full reopening of the Strait - its main weapon of pressure during the war.

But if this really is the end of the war and the Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, what will happen next? When will prices return to pre-war levels?

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The truth is that there is no exact answer.

First, the roughly 166 oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf need to leave, carrying about 170 million barrels of oil, according to Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at Kpler. This will open the way for empty tankers to enter the Strait, load up and leave.

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According to Victoria Grabenwöger, senior oil analyst at Kpler, the return to full tanker transport capacity could take up to three months.

Second, reduce inventories.

The good news: Refineries were pragmatic about storage and never completely filled stocks. This should reduce some of the time it would take to restart the pumps. However, fuller than normal inventories will still delay the resumption of oil production to full capacity.

Third: Restart production. Middle Eastern oil wells were largely shut down during the war. Turning on production is not like flipping a switch. It's a complex engineering challenge involving physics and work that can take several weeks.

Production will need to restart - slowly - to ensure that crude oil reservoirs do not collapse, requiring additional drilling and substantial repairs. The water and gas injected into the wells need to be rebalanced, which is a delicate task.

Because the wells in the region are large and close together, restarting production will require significant coordination between companies and countries to ensure that the pressure of injected water and gas remains consistent across multiple wells.

Four: Repairs. Several refineries, natural gas producers and some oil producers were damaged during the war in the Middle East. Some oil companies have said repairs to damaged critical infrastructure could take years to complete.

Complex issues
All of this assumes that the war is over and there are no further disruptions across the Strait.

The last few months have been marked, however, by several vague peace promises, leading negotiators to keep oil prices high. In fact, on April 18, Iran agreed to reopen the Strait, but hours later determined that the United States and Israel had violated part of the agreement and, once again, began firing at ships trying to pass.

In addition, shipping companies will need to feel safe sending ships through the Strait.

Insurers have increased marine insurance prices by thousands of percentage points and may be unwilling to offer affordable coverage while the situation remains precarious.

What will happen to oil and gasoline prices?
Brent oil futures contracts closed at just over US$100 per barrel on Friday (22).

Analysts at JPMorgan, who expect the Strait to open in early June, predict oil will average $97 per barrel for the rest of the year. Historically, Brent needs to be in the $60 range for gasoline to cost $3 per gallon, pointed out Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

The futures market currently does not predict this to happen before 2032.

In addition, Iran has already questioned Trump's statement that ships will be able to transit freely through the Strait again.

"Although Iran has agreed to allow the number of passing vessels to return to pre-war levels, this in no way means 'free passage' as it existed before the war," Iranian state news agency Fars reported.

War in the Middle East: Iranian delegation goes to Qatar to discuss agreement with the USA | LIVE CNN

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to the world economy?

Source: CNN