Oil price falls with expectations for agreement between US and Iran

Oil prices fell almost 6% this Monday (25), reaching two-week lows.

The drop was driven by increased optimism that the United States and Iran are moving closer to a peace agreement, although they still disagree on key issues such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

At 11:25 GMT, Brent crude futures were down $6.01, or 5.8%, at $97.53 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $5.65, or 5.9%, at $90.95.

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Both contracts were trading at their lowest values since May 7.

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Washington and Iran had largely negotiated an understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz trade route, which accounted for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the conflict.

However, several difficult questions remain, with Trump saying on Sunday that he had instructed his representatives not to rush into any deal.

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"The underlying supply deficit of 10 to 11 million barrels of crude oil per day will not disappear immediately and will cause markets to continue to draw down inventories until Middle Eastern crude oil production comes back online, which will take months," said June Goh, analyst at Sparta Commodities.

On Monday (25), both sides minimized expectations of an imminent breakthrough. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that either there will be a good deal or Washington will deal with Iran in "another way".

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iran is negotiating an end to the war and is not discussing nuclear issues at the moment.

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Analysts predict a return to normal oil flow through the strait will take months while damaged oil and gas facilities are repaired.

"We continue to believe that the key factors for the oil market to watch should be the physical flows of oil; and to date, cross-strait flows remain restricted," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

On Monday, two tankers loaded with liquefied natural gas were leaving the Strait, heading for Pakistan and China.

On Saturday (23), a supertanker with Iraqi crude oil left the Gulf towards China, after being stranded for almost three months, according to navigation data.

U.S. energy companies responded to rising local energy prices by adding oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week, unheard of since February 2025.

The number of drilling rigs, an early indicator of future production, increased by seven to 558 in the week ending May 22, the highest number since June 2025.

Even so, Baker Hughes said the total is still eight platforms lower, or 1%, compared to the same period last year.

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Source: CNN