Focus: Market projects inflation above 5% in 2026 in the 11th consecutive increase

Economists consulted by the BC (Central Bank) began to project Brazilian inflation above 5% this year.

The data that was released this Monday (25), in the Focus Bulletin, estimates the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) at 5.04%, an increase of 0.12 p.p. (percentage point) in relation to last week's release.

The increase in the index has already reached the 11th consecutive week, and the target for the year is above the ceiling.

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Last week, the Ministry of Finance revised its inflation projection from 3.7% to 4.5% in 2026.

According to the SPE (Economic Policy Secretariat), the upward revision of inflation incorporates the rise in oil prices and the market expectation of a higher Selic rate throughout the year

For the years 2027 and 2028, estimates for the index were 4.01% and 3.65% in this publication.

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Focus: median for the IPCA in 2026 at 4.91% | MARKET OPENING

In addition to inflation, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) also had an increase in its estimate for the year. This week, the projection for the country's internal growth was 1.89%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week (1.85%).

For the next two years, the forecast dropped to 1.70% in 2027 and remained at 2% in 2028, in line with the last release.

In relation to the exchange rate, the projection was the only one that represented a fall this week. According to the publication, the dollar should end 2026 at R$5.17.

In the following two years, estimates also fell to R$5.26 and R$5.30, respectively.

The basic interest rate remained in line with last week's publication, remaining at 13.25%. For 2027 and 2028, the estimate also remained the same, at 11.25% and 10%, in that order.

Brazil has the 2nd highest real interest rate in the world after the Selic rate rise

Source: CNN