Pacific warming advances and reinforces signs of El Niño formation

The advance of warming in the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean reinforced signs of the formation of a new episode of El Niño and led the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to raise the level of attention to the phenomenon.

The most recent update from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), released on May 18, points to increased confidence in climate models and indicates that El Niño could begin in the coming weeks.

Although the phenomenon has not yet been officially declared, NOAA is already operating at the "El Niño Alert" level (El Niño Watch), a stage that indicates increasingly favorable conditions for the development of the climate event. The current scenario points to a rapid transition from the neutral conditions observed in recent months to a pattern of sustained Pacific warming, according to the NOAA analysis.

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According to the agency's most recent projection, there is an 82% chance of El Niño forming between May and July 2026. The probability of the phenomenon remaining active between December 2026 and February 2027 reaches 96%, a period that corresponds to summer in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Pacific warmed and reached the level associated with El Niño
Behind the change in projections is the behavior of the ocean. The most recent data show that surface warming has advanced in virtually all monitored regions of the Equatorial Pacific.

In the previous report, from May 13, the positive temperature deviations were in:

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- Niño 4: +0.5°C
- Niño 3.4: +0.4°C
- Niño 1+2: +1.0°C

In the most recent update, on May 18, the values increased to:

- Niño 4: +0.6°C
- Niño 3.4: +0.5°C
- Niño 1+2: +1.3°C

The highlight is the Niño 3.4 region, considered the main area for monitoring the phenomenon. The index reached +0.5°C, a level used by NOAA as a reference to characterize conditions compatible with El Niño, as long as warming is sustained and accompanied by consistent atmospheric responses.

Temperature deviations according to a NOAA report, dated May 18, 2026 - Reproduction/NOAA
The maps presented by NOAA show that warming is no longer concentrated only in the far east and has started to spread across the central and eastern Pacific, a pattern frequently observed at the beginning of El Niño events. The material also highlights that positive temperature anomalies have become more established in these areas over the last few weeks.

The most important signal is below the surface
In addition to the warming observed at the surface, meteorologists monitor an indicator considered even more relevant: the temperature of subsurface waters.

Image from the NOAA report on ocean temperatures - Reproduction/NOAA
According to NOAA, the ocean's heat content increased for the sixth consecutive month, indicating an accumulation of energy below the surface of the Equatorial Pacific.

Analyzes show significantly above-average temperatures across large areas of the ocean, especially in the center and east of the basin.

This process usually precedes the strengthening of El Niño because the heat stored at depth tends to gradually migrate to the surface and fuel the warming of surface waters.

The report also points out that ocean waves known as Kelvin waves have continued transporting heat towards the east of the Pacific since the end of 2025, favoring the maintenance of positive anomalies.

Intensity is still uncertain, but a strong event scenario has gained ground
Although NOAA has increased confidence in the formation of the phenomenon, there is still no definition of its maximum intensity.

The most recent projections indicate that between November 2026 and January 2027 there is about a two-thirds chance of the phenomenon reaching strong or very strong intensity, although there is still the possibility of a more moderate event.

Experts emphasize that more intense events do not automatically mean more severe impacts, but they increase the likelihood of important changes in global temperature and rainfall patterns.

In Brazil, historically, El Niño episodes tend to favor increased rainfall in the South and drier periods in areas of the North and Northeast, in addition to influencing the distribution of temperatures in different regions of the country.

Still, the specific effects of this new episode should become clearer in the coming months, as the warming of the Pacific advances and the phenomenon is officially defined.

New wave of cold and less severe winter
To CNN Brasil, meteorologist from Nottus Alexandre Nascimento stated that the cold recorded at the beginning of May is as expected for the time of year, although it arrived a little later than usual. According to him, the polar mass associated with the cold front managed to advance to the south of the Amazon, causing the phenomenon known as cold weather.

Nascimento also stated that the winter of 2026 should be less severe than last year due to the formation of the El Niño phenomenon. According to the expert, the end of autumn and the beginning of winter should still see new masses of polar air, but July and August tend to have above-average temperatures.

Source: CNN