3rd way does not gain strength with Flávio's slowdown, points out Datafolha

The new Datafolha survey, released this Friday (22), confirmed that the dispute between senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) remains viable for the second round of the 2026 elections. The investigation is by CNN Politics analysts Pedro Venceslau and Edilene Lopes at Hora H.

According to Venceslau, the PL minimized the research results. "Some PL leaders expected an even worse scenario," he stated. "There were people who expected a difference of up to two digits, so this is within what they consider acceptable."

The party also carefully observed the numbers of Michelle Bolsonaro, who appears with 43% against 48% for Lula in a second round scenario - a performance close to that of Flávio, which, according to sources heard by Venceslau, weakens the thesis of a possible replacement of the candidacy.

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PL celebrates the absence of migration of votes to the right
Another point highlighted by the Bolsonarists was the fact that right-wing candidates such as Romeu Zema (Novo), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Renan Santos (Missão), did not register significant growth in the midst of the crisis.

"There was no significant growth in these applications", said Venceslau.

For the PL, this weakens the possibility of any of these names occupying Flávio Bolsonaro's space as the main choice of anti-PTism.

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Toque agora.

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4 Imperfeita Bia Frazo

In the second round scenario, Lula and Flávio still appear within the margin of error, although there was a difference in relation to the 45% to 45% tie recorded in the previous survey.

PT bets on continued wear and tear of Flávio Bolsonaro
Edilene Lopes reported that Lula's base believes that Flávio's wear and tear will continue as long as he does not explain the allocation of the resources involved in the case.

"As long as this doubt remains in the voter's mind, Flávio Bolsonaro loses because he was unable to explain himself and the controversy continues to drag on", highlighted Lopes.

Federal deputy Rogério Correia (PT-MG) submitted requests to the PGR (Attorney General's Office) and the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) to prevent the broadcast of the film Dark Horse, scheduled for release in September, claiming that it is an early electoral piece.

Pedro Venceslau also heard from the PT's Communication Secretary, Éden Valadares, who assessed that the survey reveals a feeling of disappointment among the Bolsonarist electorate.

"A part of the Bolsonarist electorate was mobilized for years by the issue of corruption and, when faced with the investigation into Flávio, it had a strong impact and a climate of disenchantment", said Valadares, as reported by Venceslau.

For the party, the Dark Horse case would have cost Flávio Bolsonaro the so-called "corruption card", which he intended to use against the PT.

The party also assesses that the case of Banco Master, previously associated with the federal government, has now represented a greater problem for Flávio's campaign, and claims to have enough material to explore the topic during free election hours.

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Source: CNN