Analysis: Iran resumes drone production and increases challenge for the US

Iran has already begun rebuilding parts of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire with the United States, and the process is moving more quickly than American officials anticipated. Intelligence reports obtained by CNN indicate that the strikes were unable to completely destroy Iranian military capabilities.

According to military assessments, two-thirds of Iranian missile launchers survived the attacks. Some of this equipment is defense cruise missiles used to hinder maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Several machines are buried in rubble, but the regime can recover them. Additionally, the Iranian army has moved missile launch stations to other locations in a strategic repositioning.

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Preserved military capability and external support
About 50% of Iran's total drone capability remains intact. Estimates indicate that Tehran would be able to fully restore its equipment in just six months.

This scenario results both from the inability of American and Israeli attacks to obliterate Iranian military forces, and from the support provided by China and Russia, which would have made components available for the construction of missiles and other devices - an accusation that Moscow and Beijing deny.

When asked about CNN data that runs parallel to information published by The New York Times, based on American intelligence briefings, professor of Military Sciences at Eceme (Army Command and General Staff College) Sandro Teixeira Moita stated that "it is possible to imagine 70% of Iranian military capacity preserved". According to him, Iran prepared for this conflict meticulously.

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"It was a studied war, it was thought out," said Moita, adding that the so-called "12 Day War", which took place in June last year, provided a series of lessons for Iran, including the need to disperse arsenals, command structures and designate multiple successors for each leadership figure.

Drones maintained even under attack
Sandro Teixeira Moita highlighted Iran's ability to maintain drone production even under attack from Israel and the United States. "Actually, we have three very clear problems here," he said.

The first concerns the real extent of Iranian capabilities. The other two are associated: both Iran and the United States perceive themselves as winners of the conflict - the Americans for having inflicted significant damage, and the Iranians for having resisted the "Israeli-American assault".

"These two world views cannot be reconciled", said Moita, warning that this divergence has generated obstacles in the peace negotiation process.

The professor of Military Sciences at Eceme also cited reports that, even during the war, the Iranians managed to reopen access to attacked missile storage areas within 12 hours, removing equipment to use in the Gulf. The question of how many days of bombing would be necessary, in a possible resumption of air strikes, to completely destroy Iranian arsenals was also debated - considering that the previous campaign lasted 37 days.

Strategic challenge for the United States
CNN International analyst Lourival Sant'Anna assessed that a new American military offensive would be "politically and strategically unfeasible", even if operationally possible. "What can they do now militarily that they didn't do during the previous campaign?" he asked.

Lourival added that time is running against the United States, with economic issues progressively deteriorating due to the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

An aspect highlighted by the analyst was that the Iranian arsenals positioned on the cliffs on the country's coast facing the Strait of Hormuz did not suffer significant degradation.

"The most strategic assets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps dedicated to this option of blocking the Strait of Hormuz were practically intact after these super massive bombings," he said.

For him, the bombing was "linear", without a sufficient strategic qualitative focus, which explains why the Strait remains closed and the United States faces so much difficulty in negotiations with Iran.

The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.

Source: CNN