Without agreement, action could come from both the US and Iran, says expert

Eceme Military Sciences professor Sandro Teixeira Moita assessed the current stage of the conflict between Iran and the United States during an interview with WW. According to him, without an agreement signed at the end of the six-week ceasefire, military action could come from either side.

Moita confirmed as plausible the information, conveyed by CNN Internacional and the New York Times based on American intelligence briefings, that Iran would have preserved around 70% of its military capacity. "It's possible," said the expert, remembering that the country strategically prepared itself for the conflict with the United States - and not just for the clash with Israel.

Lessons from the "12-Day War"
Last June's conflict, known as the "12-Day War," would have provided Iran with a series of tactical lessons. Among them, the need to disperse arsenals and command structures, in addition to requiring each leadership figure in the Islamic Republic to designate four successors.

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Moita also highlighted that even under attacks from Israel and the United States, Iran managed to maintain drone production. According to information reported by the Israeli press itself, in some cases the Iranians were able to reopen access to missile stockpile areas just 12 hours after an attack and were already beginning to remove the material for use.

Two sides perceive themselves as winners
According to the professor, the conflict presents three central problems. The first is the difficulty in determining the true extent of Iranian military capabilities. The other two are interconnected: both Iran and the United States perceive themselves as victors in the confrontation.

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"The Americans because they managed to inflict a lot of damage on Iran, and Iran because it managed to resist the Israeli-American assault", explained the expert. This divergence of perspectives has generated obstacles in peace negotiations.

Moita warned that the conflict is approaching a decisive moment. If there is no rupture that leads to an agreement, it is "very likely" that military action will be resumed, albeit episodic, by Israel and the United States. He added that the Israelis have been pressuring the Americans in this regard at this point in the conflict.

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Source: CNN