Futura/Apex: Lula surpasses Flávio in the 2nd round by 47.7% to 42.2%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) fell 4.7 percentage points in ten days and started to register 42.2% of voting intentions in a possible second round against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who totals 47.7%, according to the Futura/Apex survey released this Friday (22).

In the last survey, Flávio had 46.9%, while the PT member had 44.4%. The new round of research was carried out after the release of the audio between the PL pre-candidate and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, from the now extinct Banco Master.

Lula still leads three other second round simulations: against former governors of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo) and of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL).

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Lula x Ronaldo Caiado
In the dispute between Lula and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the PT member scores 47.6%, while the former governor scores 36.5%.

Lula x Romeu Zema
In a third simulation, the PT member appears with 48.3% and Romeu Zema, with 35.9%.

Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro
For the first time this year, the institute tested Michelle Bolsonaro's name. In this scenario, Lula has 47.9%, and the former first lady has 41.6%.

Top Cifras

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1 Telefone Fora de Área Banda Magníficos

2 Ayahuasca Luz Divina Edu Pajé

3 Sem Saber Pique Novo

4 Bandoleiro Ney Matogrosso

Methodology
Futura/Apex interviewed 2,000 voters from 878 Brazilian cities between May 15th and 20th, through telephone interviews. The survey's margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence interval.

The research was carried out with resources from the institute itself and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol BR-06529/2026.

Elections 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro insists on associating the Master case with Lula | CNN 360º

Source: CNN