Analysis: The Vorcaro effect and the direction of the dispute for the Planalto

The PF (Federal Police) rejected the request for plea bargain from former banker Daniel Vorcaro, imprisoned since March 4 for financial fraud, on the grounds that he had practiced what the authorities call selective offering of information.

Despite this, the PGR (Attorney General's Office) decided to continue with the negotiations, keeping negotiations open for a possible agreement.

One of the solutions discussed would involve compensation close to R$50 billion, referring to the hole identified in the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund) and BRB (Bank of Brasília).

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The case continues to generate intense political debate, with PT and PL insisting on the installation of a CPMI (Mixed Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry) by Master, an initiative that, however, does not find support in the Centrão or at the top of the National Congress.

Political repercussions of the case
In Congress, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) stated, from the stand, that he had nothing to hide about his relationship with Vorcaro. The statement was quickly refuted by PT parliamentarians, who recalled a recording in which the former banker was called "brother", resulting in a heated exchange of accusations between the sides.

The Palácio do Planalto assesses that the pre-candidate for President gives the image of disorientation in the face of the episode, a situation worsened by the recent change of his campaign's chief marketer.

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The PT created a new motto to attack its opponent, dubbed the "Daniel Vorcaro Law", in opposition to the Rouanet Law, following revelations about an alleged request for resources from the former banker to finance a film.

The episode provided ammunition for the government camp, which began to systematically exploit it in political discourse.

What to expect from the plea bargain?
CNN Politics analyst Caio Junqueira assessed that the possibility of a plea bargain exists, but tends to face obstacles to be approved by the STF (Supreme Federal Court). According to him, investigators believe that Vorcaro still has much more information to deliver, which could reach the top of Congress, the Palácio do Planalto and the STF itself.

"There may be an impasse ahead and, who knows, a change in strategy by Daniel Vorcaro himself", said the analyst.

Eurasia Group chief executive Christopher Garman highlighted that the scandal is likely to fuel a prolonged cycle of investigative headlines in the coming months. For him, new developments and new actors must emerge, and the tendency is for voters to reach the conclusion that the majority of politicians are corrupt.

"There's going to be this sea of mud," said Garman, adding that there is room for a right-wing candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to reach the second round.

Electoral scenario and third way
Caio Junqueira considered that any viable alternative to the right would need the endorsement of Bolsonarism to consolidate itself. "I don't see a space for a right-wing name without Bolsonarism," he stated, highlighting that the Bolsonaro family still shows resistance to any movement in that direction.

Data collected from AP Exata indicate that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) experienced, in recent days, the two worst moments in negative mentions on social media since the start of the scandal.

Christopher Garman cited the Genial/Quaest survey according to which 40% of Brazilians would like to have a candidate who was neither President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) nor a name related to Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

For him, however, this space only tends to materialize during the official campaign, as the other names are still little known by the electorate.

Eurasia Group's bet is that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) will reach the second round, although with the caveat that there is caution given the disenchantment identified in qualitative research with portions of both political forces.

CNN anchor Thais Herédia also highlighted that the non-Bolsonarist right made a strategic choice by allying with Bolsonarism and is now finding it difficult to disentangle itself from this camp.

"It was their choice and now they are stuck with it," he said.

Analysts highlighted the paradox of a huge contingent of voters tired of the Lula-Bolsonaro axis without there being, to date, an organized and widespread political current capable of occupying this space.

The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.

Source: CNN