Producers hold back on coffee sales despite expectations of a record harvest for 2026

Consultants project that Brazil should harvest more than 70 million bags of 60 kg this year, while the state-owned Conab also sees a production record
Credit: Disclosure.
With the harvest in its initial phase, Arabica coffee producers in Minas Gerais do not believe that the 2026 harvest will surpass the 2020 record, contrary to what some analysts and traders point out.
Representatives of cooperatives in the south of Minas and Cerrado also state that, amid expectations of a large harvest in the country -- the largest global exporter --, there is a big difference between what international buyers want to pay and what coffee growers ask for, holding back business.
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Consultants project that Brazil should harvest more than 70 million 60 kg bags this year, while state-owned Conab also sees a production record, even though consider a historic high at a lower level.
Until 2026, 2020 was seen as the year with the highest production. But, as long as the product from the current harvest is not in the warehouse, cooperatives don't think that way.
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"The best year for us was 2020 and we don't see this year surpassing 2020 in any way. We believe it will be closer to 2024 or 2023, which were good years", said Jacques Miari, president of Cocatrel, headquartered in Três Pontas, in the south of Minas Gerais, the main region of arabica in Brazil.
"2020 was a fabulous year, in which everything happened well. Climate conditions, crop management, positive bienniality, everything happened in 2020," the representative of Cocatrel, one of the largest coffee cooperatives in Brazil, told Reuters during the International Coffee Seminar in Santos.
Joaquim Frezza, commercial manager at Coocacer, based in Araguari, in the Cerrado Mineiro, said that the start of the harvest confirms the expectation of good production, but it should not exceed 2020. "I think it will be on par," he declared.
Luiz Fernando dos Reis, commercial superintendent of Cooxupé, the largest coffee cooperative and exporter in Brazil, said that there are record projections for Brazilian production when adding the volumes of Arabica and Robusta beans.
"In Arabica, only in Arabica, we are not seeing a production number higher than 2020 still", said Reis.
While the harvest is still at the beginning, he said that Cooxupé is maintaining its receipt and export forecasts.
Cooxupé projects exports of 4.4 million bags of coffee in 2026, which would be a drop of 500 thousand bags compared to last year, as the stronger shipments expected for the second half of the year would not be enough to offset the drop recorded in the first part of the year, when stocks were lows.
The coffee receipt expected by Cooxupé is 6.8 million bags, which would be an increase of around 800 thousand bags compared to 2025.
"We may, all of a sudden, be able to receive a little more coffee. But we haven't changed yet...", said the superintendent, remembering that Cooxupé has already received 8 million bags in 2020.
Business stuck?
"Even though it's not a record for arabica, it's a very good harvest. What's happening today is that business isn't ready yet. The buyer is still waiting, waiting for this commercial flow to come in," said Reis.
He commented that the producer is "still very slow in sales", after having sold the coffee at higher prices.
For Cocatrel representatives, there is currently a mismatch in the export price and the value that the producer is wanting in his coffee.
"Today the market is very stuck in the case of exports.

We are working more in the domestic market, exports today are not making much sense", said Miari, president of the Três Pontas cooperative.
Chico Pereira, commercialization manager at Cocatrel, said that the cooperative received traders at the event in Santos who negotiate millions of bags, but business is still on hold. producer today I have to sell for more than 60 (cents per pound). Then you see the offer: 5 more, 10 more. So there's a difference of 50 cents," he said.
Pereira commented that, in this situation, the market is at a standstill. "There's no way to perform, there's no way to export now... The 'bid' that I receive from abroad I can't buy and export with the small margin I need."
Despite the expected large harvest, this dispute will continue, said Pereira, at a time when many producers are able to hold on to sales after capitalize on record prices in recent years.

Source: G1

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