Analysis: What does Trump hope to achieve by putting pressure on Cuba?

Tensions between the United States and Cuba intensified with the criminal indictment of former Cuban president Raúl Castro and the approach of American military vessels to the island.

For CNN International analyst Lourival Sant'anna on CNN Prime Time, American President Donald Trump's strategy in relation to Cuba follows a similar logic to that previously adopted with Iran.

Sant'anna explained that, in the Iranian case, Trump was convinced that there was the possibility of quick success: "Beheading and changing the regime, doing something that no American president had dared to do in 47 years of the Islamic Republic."

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As this objective was not achieved, the focus now turns to Cuba, considered a simpler target as it is only about 150km off the coast of Florida, as highlighted by Marco Rubio.

Naval blockade and indictment as pressure tools
According to the analyst, Trump would have launched a net - the naval blockade - and then a bait, represented by the indictment of Raúl Castro. The strategy would be to observe the effects of these actions: "Like a fisherman waiting to see what he catches", he explains.

Among the possible scenarios, Lourival mentioned the hypothesis of a palace coup, with a more pragmatic and less ideological Cuban military taking power and negotiating with Trump.

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In addition to Raúl Castro, five other Cubans were indicted, accused of having piloted the fighters that shot down small civilian aircraft.

According to the analyst, these aircraft were "invading Cuban airspace", dropping leaflets and trying to rescue Cuban refugees to the United States.

The analyst highlighted that, although the mission had a destabilizing nature, the decision to shoot down the planes constitutes a crime, as civilians were killed. A possible American special forces operation could have the mission of capturing these other indictees and, thus, creating additional destabilization.

Cuban response and diplomatic context
In response to pressure, Cuba would have acquired 300 Shahid drones from Iran and incorporated Russian doctrine for the use of these aircraft, in addition to relying on Chinese military intelligence. All this information would come from American intelligence.

Sant'anna also highlighted that these acquisitions would have taken place two days after the director of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, visited Havana to present the American conditions for a possible negotiation - and that it was from this meeting that the indictment of Raúl Castro came about.

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Source: CNN