What do China's new US agricultural purchases mean for global trade?

US President Donald Trump (left) poses for photos with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to the Zhongnanhai Garden in Beijing, May 15, 2026.
Evan Vucci / Pool / AFP
China has committed to buying at least US$17 billion (R$86.1 billion) a year in US agricultural products, in addition to soybeans, for three years, the White House said in the last Sunday (17), after a summit between the leaders of the two countries in Beijing last week.
The world's largest importer of agricultural products, China drastically reduced purchases from the US following last year's trade war between the two largest global economies.
However, the two countries agreed to expand agricultural trade and eliminate non-tariff barriers for beef and poultry, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said.
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Following are the main details of agricultural trade between the countries and how these purchases may evolve:
What does the agreement mean?
The promise of US$17 billion (R$86.1 billion), in addition to existing soybean commitments, would take total imports China's agricultural production in the US to close to US$28 billion to US$30 billion (from R$141.8 billion to R$152 billion) per year, according to traders and analysts. 121.6 billion) in 2024.
To achieve this goal, Beijing will have to significantly increase purchases of wheat, feed grains, meat and non-food agricultural products, such as cotton and wood, according to traders and analysts.
Beijing fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans, in addition to acquiring some volume of wheat and a large amount of sorghum, following an agreement signed last October between the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping.
As part of this agreement, the White House stated that China would purchase at least 25 million tons of soybeans per year.
Redirecting Imports
Increased purchases of agricultural products from the United States are expected to come at the expense of exports from rival suppliers...
"Achieving $17 billion annually by excluding soybeans would likely require China to intentionally redirect purchases from existing suppliers to the United States for political and strategic reasons, rather than purely trades," Cheang Kang Wei, vice-president of StoneX in Singapore, told Reuters.
Brazil, China's main soybean supplier with a 73.6% market share in 2025, has also become its main corn supplier. Last year, China approved imports of Brazilian distillers' dried grains (DDGS), a high-protein animal feed ingredient obtained during the ethanol manufacturing process.
Australia, which was China's top supplier of wheat in 2023 and sorghum in 2025, could face falling demand if US wheat and sorghum gain ground. Barley imports could also come under pressure, while increased US beef purchases could reduce demand for Australia's premium beef in China.
Other major suppliers, such as Canada and France for wheat, and Argentina for sorghum, could also see lower demand. compared to Brazilians, according to market operators.
"The purchase of 25 million tons of US soybeans should not be a problem, as US prices are quite attractive now," an expert who trades oilseeds told Reuters.

"They can buy for crushing and also for storage."
State-owned companies Cofco and Sinograin are expected to lead U.S. soybean purchases as long as China maintains an additional 10% tariff, traders say.
China has drastically reduced its dependence on U.S. soybeans since Donald Trump's first term. In 2024, the American product represented about a fifth of Chinese imports, compared to 41% in 2016.
Corn and wheat
It is likely that Chinese state traders will remain the main buyers of corn and wheat from the United States, as they receive import quotas with reduced tariffs.
China has import quotas of 9.64 million tons for wheat and 7.2 million for corn, with a tariff of 1%. Purchases in excess of these quotas are subject to tariffs of up to 65%.
In 2025, China purchased just US$5 million (R$25.3 million) in corn from the United States, well below the US$561.5 million (R$2.8 billion) recorded the previous year. Shipments were halted after June, according to Chinese customs data.
Wheat imports fell to almost zero in 2025, after totaling 1.9 million tonnes, equivalent to around US$600 million (around R$3 billion), in 2024.
Sorghum and DDGS
China is expected to increase purchases of feed grains, including sorghum, after heavy rains hamper production in the north of the country in 2025.
Unlike wheat and corn, sorghum is not subject to import quotas.
Since November, Beijing has purchased at least 2.5 million tons of sorghum from the United States to compensate for corn shortages on the domestic market. More relevant purchases of DDGS would depend on the suspension of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs in force since 2017.
Meat
China is an important market for products such as chicken feet, pork ears and offal from the United States - items with little demand in the American market.
Imports of beef and poultry from the United States are expected to increase after Beijing indicated that the two countries will work to resolve trade disputes.
On Friday, the China has granted five-year registration extensions to 425 U.S. beef-producing units, which had been largely suspended after licenses expired last year. In addition, it approved new five-year registrations for another 77 units.
Beijing introduced, last December, a quota system for beef imports, with a 55% tariff for volumes above the established limit. The measure affects key suppliers, including the United States, and aims to protect local industry.
Non-food agricultural products
Chinese imports may also include non-food products such as cotton and wood. In the case of cotton, purchases fell from US$1.85 billion (R$9.4 billion) in 2024 to US$225.7 million (R$1.1 billion) last year.
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